News & Research

Bitcoin has entered a period of mild, range-bound correction rather than a distinct bull market or a panic-driven bear market, according to an analysis by XWIN Research Japan, a contributor to CryptoQuant. The firm noted that its Apparent Demand indicator, which measures the net balance between BTC supply and demand, registered -19,000 BTC in late January. This suggests new demand is nearly non-existent and supply pressure is outpacing market inflows. Additionally, the Realized Cap metric has stagnated. The analysis states that a structural divergence exists between the current price level and demand indicators, making it difficult to interpret the situation as bullish even if BTC remains in the high $70,000s. The research firm highlighted that current Apparent Demand figures are less extreme compared to the bear markets of 2014-2015, 2018-2019, and 2022. Intermittent price recoveries suggest that selling is primarily driven by profit-taking rather than fear-based capitulation. Slowing inflows into spot BTC ETFs and reduced buying from Strategy are impacting demand, with selling from early holders becoming more prominent. However, no large-scale selling at a loss by long-term holders has been observed. Consequently, a prolonged correction is considered more likely than a sharp decline, with range-bound trading expected to continue for the time being. The market outlook could shift, the analysis concludes, if Apparent Demand turns positive and the Realized Cap begins to increase.

Trend Research, a subsidiary of LD Capital that has been accumulating Ethereum (ETH) since November of last year, has an average purchase price of $3,180 and a liquidation price of around $1,830, according to a report from AmberCN. The firm currently holds approximately 618,000 ETH, valued at $1.43 billion. It recently sold 33,589 ETH ($79.12 million) to repay loans and lower its liquidation threshold. The sale resulted in a realized loss of $27.71 million, while the firm's unrealized losses stand at $534 million. Trend Research holds approximately $941 million in loans from crypto lending protocols, including Aave.

Following a sharp decline in Bitcoin's price last Saturday, the average return for investors in BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has reportedly turned negative. According to Cointelegraph, Bob Elliott, a former executive at the major global hedge fund Bridgewater, explained that Bitcoin's recent drop to the mid-$70,000s fell below the average entry price for IBIT investors. He noted that this was due to capital inflows at Bitcoin's peak diluting the average return, meaning that while some early investors remain in profit, the overall cumulative return has shifted to a loss. The media outlet added that the dollar-weighted return for IBIT peaked at around $35 billion last October, when Bitcoin reached an all-time high, and has been declining since, increasing pressure on investor returns.

Trend Research, an entity under LD Capital, sold 30,000 ETH ($70.18 million) on Binance to repay a loan, according to a report from Onchain Lens. Over the past 18 hours, the firm deposited a total of 40,000 ETH ($94.53 million) to the exchange and withdrew 6,412 ETH. Trend Research began accumulating ETH last November when the price was at $3,400, continuously borrowing USDT to fund the purchases. Prior to this sale, its holdings exceeded 650,000 ETH as of Jan. 21.

Blockchain security firm CertiK reported that losses from exploits and hacks totaled $400 million in January, with phishing attacks accounting for over 70% of the figure. A significant portion of this came from a single phishing attack on Jan. 16 that targeted hardware wallet users, resulting in the theft of approximately $284 million. In that incident, an attacker impersonated customer support for hardware wallet manufacturer Trezor to obtain victims' recovery seed phrases, ultimately stealing 1,459 BTC and 2.05 million LTC.

Robert Kiyosaki, author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," stated on X that a sale on gold, silver, and Bitcoin has begun. He contrasted the behavior of different economic classes, noting that while less affluent people rush to buy consumer goods during a Walmart sale, they often sell financial assets in fear during a market crash. In contrast, Kiyosaki said, the wealthy use these moments to acquire assets, and he is preparing to purchase more gold, silver, and Bitcoin.

The sharp decline in the cryptocurrency market last Saturday was directly caused by contracting market liquidity and large-scale liquidations rather than macroeconomic variables, according to an analysis by trading platform The Kobeissi Letter. The platform stated on X that the push below $79,000 for Bitcoin was not due to geopolitical issues or Federal Reserve policy, but was purely a liquidity problem. It added that more than three major forced liquidations occurred between Friday and Saturday, with the total volume exceeding $1.3 billion. This accumulation of excessive leveraged positions in a low-liquidity environment led to an "air pocket" phenomenon, where the order book thinned out rapidly. The analysis also noted that volatility increased as investor sentiment swung wildly between optimism and pessimism.

A capital rotation from gold to Bitcoin could begin as early as February, potentially signaling a rebound for the cryptocurrency, Cointelegraph reported. Crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe explained that data from Bitwise Europe shows Bitcoin's value relative to gold (XAU) has recently fallen to an all-time low. He noted that this level is similar to major bottoms observed just before past bull markets, suggesting the current environment may present a better buying opportunity for Bitcoin than 2017 did. Separately, analysts at Bitwise Europe and Swyftx also projected that some funds could move to Bitcoin following the recent rally in gold, forecasting the trend could emerge between February and March.

Binance founder Changpeng Zhao has unfollowed Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko on X, PA News reported. The move follows Yakovenko sharing a post by OKX founder Xu Mingxing that blamed Binance for the cryptocurrency flash crash on Oct. 10, 2025.

Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump's nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chair, has been named in files related to the late financier Jeffrey Epstein, Yahoo Finance reported. His name was included on an invitation list for a Christmas event on the island of St. Barts in 2010. The Epstein files have generated controversy over allegations that President Trump was aware of and potentially involved in Epstein's underage sex trafficking crimes. The U.S. Department of Justice has previously released hundreds of thousands of documents related to the case. These files reportedly show that former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers and Tether co-founder Brock Pierce held discussions about Bitcoin at Epstein's Manhattan mansion.